Jostle for Presidency divides Nigerians

In this piece, ALLWELL OKPI, examines the rising conflict between the two sides of Nigerian politics ahead of the 2015 general elections

As Nigeria prepares for the make-or-mar 2015 general elections, the country’s political scene has experienced some of the most unprecedented happenings. Many of these events, occurring for the first time since the Fourth Republic began in 1999, seem to have torn the Nigerian populace into two over who should be the next President; which political party or ethnic group should he emerge from and what his religious affiliation should be.
Specifically, the conflict has been on whether President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party, who is a Christian from the Ijaw ethnic nationality in the South-South, should be re-elected; or be replaced by a northern Muslim, who would most likely emerge from the main opposition party, the All Progressives Congress. Though the President has not formally declared his intention to seek re-election, it’s believed that he is gearing towards doing so. While many Nigerians have questioned the performance of the Jonathan administration, insisting it does not deserve a second term, others have already launched campaigns for his re-election.
Virtually all major political developments in the country since 2011, have been judged in terms of support for the continuity of President Jonathan’s government or opposition to it. For instance, the splitting of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum into two factions; the emergence of the now defunct New PDP; the defection of five state governors from the PDP to the APC, the removal of Governor Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State as well as the gale of defections of prominent politicians, all had to do with Jonathan’s political future.
When the dust settled after the tussle for its leadership, two chairmen had emerged in the governors’ forum; one, Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State, who leads a faction that is opposed to the continuity of Jonathan’s administration, and the other one, Governor Jonah Jang of Plateau State, who leads the faction that is in tandem with the President. The Presidency was said to have been opposed to Amaechi’s re-election as chairman of the NGF because of his perceived ambition to become Vice-President to a northern President in 2015; an arrangement that rules out a second term for Jonathan.
The situation grew worse with seven state governors elected on the platform of the PDP forming a pressure group to demand, among other things, the control of the party structure and the removal of the then National Chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, who was arguably Jonathan’s strongest ally at the time. Their negotiation with the President continued until August 31, 2013, when the seven governors alongside some other leaders of the party walked out of its convention to form the New PDP. After further negotiations, five governors, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara State; Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa, Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, and Amaechi, defected to the APC, a party that shares their aspiration of denying Jonathan a second term.
After that, many others including former Minister of Aviation, Femi Fani-Kayode; former Governor of Kano State, Ibrahim Shekarau; former Governor of Borno State, Ali Modu-Sheriff; and former Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Nuhu Ribadu, defected from the APC to the PDP. Judging by unfolding political developments, more are set to defect from both parties. All of these defections have apparently strengthened or weakened the chances of Jonathan’s re-election.
In fact, from the beginning, the merger of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for Progressive Change and All Nigerian Peoples Party, to form the APC, was apparently borne out of the desire to dislodge the PDP from the centre. This came after an attempt to form the merger before the 2011 presidential election failed and Jonathan garnered about 55 per cent of votes cast and won.
The APC has since maintained its resolve to defeat the PDP at the presidential poll. At virtually all its rallies, leaders of the opposition party have spared nothing at highlighting the failures of the PDP-led Federal Government.
Also, ethnic nationalities in the country seem to be lining up on both sides of the divide. Going by the positions taken by leaders of various sections of the country, it seems clear that most parts of the South-East, the South-South and the North-Central are largely pro-Jonathan, while most parts of North-West, North-East and the South-West are largely anti-Jonathan. However, these are no strict classifications, as both sides seem to be making inroads into their opponent’s territory. The recent victory of Jonathan’s party, the PDP in Ekiti State, and the report that Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State would soon join the PDP, seem to have given the pro-Jonathan camp some leverage in the South-West.
Political parties are not left out. With the apparent endorsement of Jonathan by the Labour Party and the All Progressives Grand Alliance, and speculations that some prominent politicians like the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, will soon defect to the APC, it is believed that the presidential race has been reduced to a two-horse race. By extension, Nigeria seems to be turning into a two-party state.
However, a Second Republic Governor of Kaduna State, Alhaji Balarabe Musa, does not agree. He said though politicians have aligned themselves along the two opposing lines and the PDP and the APC have clearly become the two biggest parties in Nigeria, the country has turned into a one-party state instead. This, he said, was because there was no difference between the PDP and the APC in terms of ideology.
He said, “We don’t have a two-party state. What we have is a one-party state. Do you think the emergence of the APC made Nigeria a two-party state? No, it is a one-party state, the PDP. The PDP can do whatever it wants in Nigeria. The APC is not really an opposition to the PDP. Can you tell me any fundamental difference between the APC and the PDP in tactics? They both believe in the leading role of the private sector in the economy. Is there any difference in that?
“Whatever the PDP does in principle, the APC does the same. Take for instance, elections. Whoever is in charge in a state does what he likes. Take local government elections for example, the most recently conducted in Kano State. Kano is a cosmopolitan state, with diverse political inclinations. The APC took all the local governments in that election. Do you think that is realistic in Kano? These were the things that the APC and the rest of Nigeria criticised the PDP for.”
Musa added that due to the crisis in the country, there was no possibility of Jonathan getting re-elected in a free, fair and transparent election. “But he (Jonathan) has the advantage of incumbency and I know he would want to do anything to make sure he continues to be the President,” he said.
On his part, a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Abuja, Prof. Dauda Saleh, says it was unfortunate that about five months to the 2015 presidential election, the arguments were still centred on Jonathan. Saleh said it was evidence that Nigerian politicians were fixated on getting access to “the national cake,” and were not guided by any ideology.
He said, “The issue in Nigeria today is whether you are with Jonathan or you are not. This clearly points to the fact that politics in Nigeria is not issue-based. Nobody is telling us that what he will do in agriculture different from what Jonathan is doing. Nobody is telling us what he will do in education different from what Jonathan is doing.
“They are not talking about policies. It shows the poverty of politics in Nigeria where personalities are the focus, not developmental issues. And everything is unfortunately centred on regionalism; North, South, Christians, Muslims. These are the primordial things that define politics in Nigeria. The elite manipulate ethnic and religious sentiments simply because we are dealing mainly with people who are not literate.”
In contrast, senior lecturer in the Department of Local Government Studies, Obafemi Awolowo University, Prof. Francis Fagbohun, said the sharp division in the country’s politics based on support for or opposition to Jonathan was necessary.
He said, “I agree that Nigerian politics has been divided into two with pro-Jonathan politicians on one side and anti-Jonathan politicians on the other side. But it is necessary to beam light on those who are anti-Jonathan and ask why. The issues involved are simple. It is either people want change, because they don’t think this PDP-led government has done enough on several national issues, or otherwise.
“I’m biased because of the issue of Chibok girls. I don’t understand how the government cannot free the girls after several months. If you look at it from that point of view, you might be tempted to say the APC’s opposition of Jonathan is issue-based, especially if the APC candidate can tell us that within one month of coming into power he will rescue the girls and change things in the country.”
Fagbohun added that money had played a major role in the current political situation. He said despite the fact that many Nigerians may not be satisfied with Jonathan’s performance, they may be induced to vote for him. He, however, noted that the APC also uses money to advance its cause.
“Most of the other parties are hungry and it is very easy for the government to buy them over. In reality there are only two parties, the APC and the PDP. However, another factor to consider is that the incumbent is usually not easy to beat,” he said.